{"id":5302,"date":"2022-03-27T04:26:13","date_gmt":"2022-03-27T04:26:13","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drnantu.com\/blog\/?p=5302"},"modified":"2022-03-27T04:26:16","modified_gmt":"2022-03-27T04:26:16","slug":"%e4%b8%ba%e4%bb%80%e4%b9%88%e8%bf%87%e5%8e%bb%e4%ba%8c%e5%8d%81%e5%b9%b4%e6%88%91%e4%bb%ac%e6%84%9f%e5%8f%97%e5%88%b0%e7%9a%84%e9%80%9a%e8%b4%a7%e8%86%a8%e8%83%80%e5%92%8c%e5%9b%bd%e5%ae%b6%e5%85%ac","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drnantu.com\/blog\/2022\/03\/27\/%e4%b8%ba%e4%bb%80%e4%b9%88%e8%bf%87%e5%8e%bb%e4%ba%8c%e5%8d%81%e5%b9%b4%e6%88%91%e4%bb%ac%e6%84%9f%e5%8f%97%e5%88%b0%e7%9a%84%e9%80%9a%e8%b4%a7%e8%86%a8%e8%83%80%e5%92%8c%e5%9b%bd%e5%ae%b6%e5%85%ac","title":{"rendered":"\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e8c\u5341\u5e74\u6211\u4eec\u611f\u53d7\u5230\u7684\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u548c\u56fd\u5bb6\u516c\u5e03\u7684CPI\u6307\u6570\u6709\u5f88\u5927\u7684\u533a\u522b\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\u6211\u4eec\u5148\u6765\u770b\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u6240\u8c13\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u5c31\u662f\u94b1\u7684\u8d2d\u4e70\u529b\u4e0b\u964d\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\u53bb\u5e74\u4e00\u4e2a\u9ea6\u5f53\u52b3\u6c49\u5821\u5305\u898110\u5143\uff0c\u4eca\u5e74\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u9ea6\u5f53\u52b3\u6c49\u5821\u5305\u898111\u5143\uff0c\u4e70\u5230\u7684\u4e1c\u897f\u6ca1\u53d8\uff0c\u4ef7\u683c\u786e\u4e0a\u6da8\u4e861\u5143\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f10%\u3002 \u90a3\u4e48\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\uff0c\u624b\u4e0a\u7684\u94b1\u7684\u8d2d\u4e70\u529b\u4e0b\u964d\u4e8610%\u3002\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u7387\u662f10%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u5546\u54c1\u4ef7\u683c\u4f1a\u6da8\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4f20\u7edf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u8ba4\u4e3a\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u6709\u4e24\u4e2a\u4e3b\u8981\u539f\u56e0\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n

  1. \u6210\u672c\u63a8\u52a8 (cost push)\u7684\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\uff0c\u5373\u6210\u672c\u4e0a\u5347\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0a\u6da8\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\uff1a\u653f\u5e9c\u63d0\u9ad8\u6700\u4f4e\u5de5\u8d44\u5bfc\u81f4\u7528\u5de5\u6210\u672c\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u6cb9\u4ef7\u4e0a\u6da8\u5bfc\u81f4\u8fd0\u8f93\u6210\u672c\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u989d\u5916\u6210\u672c\u5546\u5bb6\u4f1a\u8f6c\u5ac1\u7ed9\u5ba2\u6237\u3002<\/li>
  2. \u9700\u6c42\u62c9\u52a8(demand pull)\u7684\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\uff0c\u5373\u5546\u54c1\u548c\u670d\u52a1\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u8d85\u8fc7\u4f9b\u5e94\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\u5927\u57ce\u5e02\u6838\u5fc3\u5730\u533a\u7684\u623f\u5b50\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u5927\u91cf\u519c\u6751\u4eba\u53e3\u8fdb\u57ce\uff0c\u4f4f\uff08\u4e70\uff09\u623f\u9700\u6c42\u5f3a\u52b2\uff0c\u4f4f\u623f\u4f9b\u7ed9\u4e0d\u8db3\uff0c\u4f9b\u9700\u4e0d\u5e73\u8861\uff0c\u53ea\u80fd\u6da8\u4ef7\uff0c\u4ef7\u9ad8\u8005\u5f97\u3002<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    \u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u89c2\u70b9\u65e0\u6cd5\u89e3\u91ca\u5927\u901a\u6da8\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u6218\u4e89\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u7269\u4ef7\u98d9\u5347\uff0c\u94b1\u4e0d\u5982\u7eb8\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\u3002\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u7c73\u5c14\u987f\u00b7\u5f17\u91cc\u5fb7\u66fc\uff08Milton Friedman\uff0970\u5e74\u4ee3\u63d0\u51fa\u4e00\u79cd\u65b0\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u89c2\u70b9\u662f\uff1a\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u8d27\u5e01\u73b0\u8c61\u3002\u5c31\u662f\u8d27\u5e01\u4f9b\u5e94\u8d85\u8fc7\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\u4e00\u4e2a\u53ea\u6709\u6c49\u5821\u548c\u94b1\u7684\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u539f\u6765\u5e02\u573a\u4e0a\u670910\u4e2a\u6c49\u5821\uff0c\u4e5f\u6709100\u5143\u94b1\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u6c49\u5821\u5c31\u662f10\u5143\u4e00\u4e2a\u3002\u73b0\u5728\u5e02\u573a\u4e0a\u670920\u4e2a\u6c49\u5821\uff08\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u4e861\u500d\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u6709300\u5143\u94b1\uff08\u8d27\u5e01\u589e\u957f\u4e862\u500d\uff0c\u6bd4\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u5feb\u4e861\u500d\uff09\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u6c49\u5821\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u5c31\u662f15\u5143\u4e00\u4e2a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u7531\u4e8e\u56fd\u5bb6\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u7684\u6570\u91cf\u662f\u516c\u5f00\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u53ea\u8981\u4e86\u89e3\u56fd\u5bb6\u53d1\u884c\u8d27\u5e01\u7684\u6570\u91cf\uff0c\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ba1\u7b97\u51fa\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u7684\u6570\u91cf\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u56fd\u5bb6\u53d1\u884c\u8d27\u5e01\u7684\u6570\u91cf\u6709\u4ee5\u4e0b\u51e0\u4e2a\u6307\u6807\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    M0=\u6d41\u901a\u4e2d\u73b0\u91d1 \uff08\u4e0e\u6d88\u8d39\u5bc6\u5207\u76f8\u5173\uff0c\u5176\u6570\u503c\u9ad8\u4ee3\u8868\u8001\u767e\u59d3\u624b\u5934\u5bbd\u88d5\u3001\u5bcc\u8db3\uff09<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    M1=M0\uff0b\u4f01\u4e1a\u5b58\u6b3e\uff08\u4f01\u4e1a\u5b58\u6b3e\u6263\u9664\u5355\u4f4d\u5b9a\u671f\u5b58\u6b3e\u548c\u81ea\u7b79\u57fa\u5efa\u5b58\u6b3e\uff09\uff0b\u673a\u5173\u56e2\u4f53\u90e8\u961f\u5b58\u6b3e\uff0b\u519c\u6751\u5b58\u6b3e\uff0b\u4fe1\u7528\u5361\u7c7b\u5b58\u6b3e\uff08\u4e2a\u4eba\u6301\u6709\uff09 \uff08\u6620\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e2d\u7684\u73b0\u5b9e\u8d2d\u4e70\u529b\uff0c\u4ee3\u8868\u7740\u5c45\u6c11\u548c\u4f01\u4e1a\u8d44\u91d1\u677e\u7d27\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u662f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5468\u671f\u6ce2\u52a8\u7684\u5148\u884c\u6307\u6807\u3002\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u4ec5\u6b21\u4e8eM0\u3002\uff09<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    M2=M1\uff0b\u57ce\u4e61\u5c45\u6c11\u50a8\u84c4\u5b58\u6b3e\uff0b\u4f01\u4e1a\u5b58\u6b3e\u4e2d\u5177\u6709\u5b9a\u671f\u6027\u8d28\u7684\u5b58\u6b3e\uff08\u5355\u4f4d\u5b9a\u671f\u5b58\u6b3e\u548c\u81ea\u7b79\u57fa\u5efa\u5b58\u6b3e\uff09\uff0b\u5916\u5e01\u5b58\u6b3e\uff0b\u4fe1\u6258\u7c7b\u5b58\u6b3e<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    M2\u4e0d\u5305\u62ec\u653f\u5e9c\u5b58\u6b3e\u3001\u91d1\u878d\u503a\u5238\u3001\u5546\u4e1a\u7968\u636e\u548c\u5b58\u5355\u7b49\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    M2\u540c\u65f6\u53cd\u6620\u73b0\u5b9e\u8d2d\u4e70\u529b\u3001\u6f5c\u5728\u8d2d\u4e70\u529b\uff0c\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u504f\u5f31\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u793e\u4f1a\u603b\u9700\u6c42\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u548c\u672a\u6765\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u7684\u538b\u529b\u72b6\u51b5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u901a\u5e38\u6240\u8bf4\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\u4f9b\u5e94\u91cf\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u6307M2\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u6309\u7167\u5f17\u91cc\u5fb7\u66fc\u5bf9\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u7684\u63cf\u8ff0\uff0c\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u53ef\u4ee5\u7406\u89e3\u4e3a\uff1aM2 \u589e\u901f > GDP \u589e\u901f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n


    \u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u5230\u5e95\u662f\u591a\u5c11\u7684\u4e89\u8bba\u3002\u8fd9\u91cc\u5c31\u8981\u8bf4\u4e00\u8bf4\u56fd\u5bb6\u516c\u5e03\u7684CPI\u6307\u6570\u548c\u4e2a\u4eba\u611f\u53d7\u7684\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u7684\u533a\u522b\u4e86\u3002\u62ff\u8fc7\u53bb20\u5e74\uff082001-2020\u5e74\uff09\u7684\u6570\u636e\u4e3e\u4f8b\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    1: \u56fd\u5bb6\u516c\u5e03\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u7269\u4ef7\u6307\u6570CPI\u6307\u6807\uff1a\u5e74\u57472-3%\uff0c\u7531\u4e8eCPI\u53d6\u6837\u7684\u90fd\u662f\u6ee1\u8db3\u5927\u5bb6\u57fa\u672c\u9700\u6c42\u7684\u5546\u54c1\uff0c\uff08\u4e0d\u5305\u62ec\u623f\u4ef7\uff09\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5CPI\u6307\u6570\u4e5f\u53eb\u505a\u4f4e\u6536\u5165\u8005\u5546\u54c1\u6307\u6570<\/strong>\u201d\u3002\u672a\u67655\u5e74\u9884\u6d4b\uff0cCPI\u662f2-3%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    2: \u8d27\u5e01\u8d85\u53d1\u91cf\u8ba1\u7b97\uff1a \u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u7387 = \u8d27\u5e01\u4f9b\u5e94\u589e\u901fM2 – GDP\u589e\u901f<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u5e74\u57475.78%\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u6c49\u5821\u5305\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6307\u6570\u53eb\u505a\u4e2d\u4ea7\u6307\u6570\u3002\u672a\u67655\u5e74\u9884\u6d4b\u662f\uff1a 3%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    3\uff1a\u57fa\u4e8e\u8d27\u5e01\u589e\u53d1\u91cf\u8ba1\u7b97\uff1a\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u7387 = \u8d27\u5e01\u4f9b\u5e94\u589e\u901fM2<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u8fd9\u4e2a\u7b97\u6cd5\u6ca1\u6709\u8003\u8651GDP\u589e\u957f\u672c\u8eab\u9700\u8981\u589e\u53d1\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u5bf9\u4e8e\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5e02\u573a\u6295\u8d44\u7b49\u884c\u4e3a\u6781\u5177\u53c2\u8003\u4ef7\u503c\u300214.96% \uff0c\u5728\u4e00\u7ebf\u57ce\u5e02\u751f\u6d3b\u7684\u4eba\u53ef\u4ee5\u660e\u663e\u611f\u53d7\u5230\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u589e\u5e45\u57fa\u672c\u5c31\u662f\u8fc7\u53bb20\u5e74\uff0c\u4e00\u7ebf\u57ce\u5e02\u623f\u4ef7\u7684\u6da8\u5e45\u3002\u672a\u67655\u5e74\u9884\u6d4b\uff1a9%\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u672a\u6765\u6838\u5fc3\u57ce\u5e02\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u8fd8\u4f1a\u4ee59%\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u4e0a\u6da8\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6307\u6570\u53eb\u505a\u201c\u5bcc\u4eba\u8d44\u4ea7\u6307\u6570<\/strong>\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u9644\u5e26\u8bf4\u660e\uff1a\u6709\u4e00\u79cd\u6d41\u884c\u7684\u8bf4\u6cd5\u662f\uff1aM2\u7684\u589e\u503c\u91cf\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u662f\u4fe1\u8d37\u521b\u9020\u51fa\u6765\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u4e5f\u5c31\u662fM2 \u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u592e\u884c\u6545\u610f\u5370\u94b1\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5927\u91cf\u7684\u4e2a\u4eba\u548c\u4f01\u4e1a\u53bb\u5546\u4e1a\u94f6\u884c\u501f\u94b1\uff08\u6bd4\u5982\u4e2a\u4eba\u4e70\u623f\uff0c\u4f01\u4e1a\u8d37\u6b3e\u6765\u6269\u5927\u751f\u4ea7\uff09\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4fe1\u8d37\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u662f\u521b\u9020\u51fa\u65b0\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\u7684\u7f6a\u9b41\u7978\u9996\u3002\u6240\u4ee5M2\u7684\u589e\u957f\u957f\u671f\u8d85\u8fc7GDP\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u4e0d\u662f\u592e\u884c\u5370\u94b1\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5e02\u573a\u4fe1\u5fc3\u5f88\u8db3\uff0c\u8d37\u6b3e\u9700\u6c42\u65fa\u76db\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u4e0d\u7ba1\u5982\u4f55\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u4ee5\u4e0a\u4e09\u4e2a\u8ba1\u7b97\u65b9\u6cd5\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u5bf9\u5e94\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u4eba\u7fa4\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u4eba\u7fa4\u611f\u53d7\u5230\u7684\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u662f\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u7ad9\u5728\u4f4e\u6536\u5165\u8005\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\uff0c\u8fc7\u53bb20\u5e74\u7684\u7269\u4ef7\u5e73\u5747\u6bcf\u5e74\u4e0a\u6da8\u5927\u7ea62-3%\u3002\u7b26\u5408\u56fd\u5bb6\u516c\u5e03\u7684CPI\u6307\u6570\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u7ad9\u5728\u4e2d\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\u7684\u7acb\u573a\uff0c\u4ece\u57fa\u4e8e\u8d27\u5e01\u8d85\u53d1\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6<\/strong>\uff0c\u8fc7\u53bb20\u5e74\uff0c\u603b\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u7387\u4e3a207.87%<\/strong>\uff0c\u590d\u5408\u5e74\u5316\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u7387\u4e3a5.78%<\/strong>\u3002\u901a\u4fd7\u70b9\u8bf4\uff1a\u5bf9\u4e8e\u57fa\u672c\u7684\u751f\u6d3b\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u5403\u996d\uff0c2020\u5e7412\u670831\u65e5\uff0c307.87\u5143\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u7684\u8d2d\u4e70\u529b<\/strong>\u5927\u81f4\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e2001\u5e741\u67081\u65e5100\u5143\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u7684\u8d2d\u4e70\u529b\u3002<\/strong>\u8fd9\u4e2a\u548c\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e8c\u5341\u5e74\u6c49\u5821\u5305\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u57fa\u672c\u662f\u543b\u5408\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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